MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER EPIDEMIC DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN AFRICA
Urakova Karina Airatovna, Khrapov Pavel Vasil'evich
Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Abstract. The article analyzes statistical data on Ebola epidemic outbreak, which occurred in West African countries in 2014-2016. A mathematical model of Ebola fever epidemic spread is constructed, optimal values of model parameters that describe statistical data well are identified, the volume of risk groups in each country is determined. An estimate of the number of lives saved by doctors after the start of using the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine developed in Canada is given.
Key words and phrases: геморрагическая лихорадка Эбола, математическая модель распространения лихорадки, вакцина rVSV-ZEBOV, задача Коши, метод Рунге-Кутты четвертого порядка, Ebola hemorrhagic fever, mathematical model of fever spread, rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, Cauchy problem, Runge-Kutta method of the fourth order
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